President Trump signaled on Friday that the United States is considering winding down its military operations in Iran, even as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed and thousands more Marines are headed to the region. His post on Truth Social was the strongest indication yet that he is moving toward an exit from the war, but it raised an immediate and unresolved question: what happens to the global energy crisis if the US walks away before the strait reopens?
What Trump Said
“We are getting very close to meeting our objectives as we consider winding down our great Military efforts in the Middle East with respect to the Terrorist Regime of Iran,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. He listed the war’s objectives as degrading Iran’s missile capabilities and industrial base, eliminating its navy and air force, preventing nuclear development and protecting US allies in the region. He ruled out a ceasefire in the same breath. “I don’t want to do a ceasefire. You know, you don’t do a ceasefire when you’re literally obliterating the other side,” he told reporters before departing the White House.
“The Hormuz Strait will have to be guarded and policed, as necessary, by other Nations who use it — The United States does not,” Trump wrote. “If asked, we will help these Countries in their Hormuz efforts, but it shouldn’t be necessary once Iran’s threat is eradicated.”
The Gap Between Words and Reality
A senior Iranian official dismissed Trump’s comments as “Trump’s psychological operations to control the markets.” The official added: “Tehran has concluded that it should not teach Trump a lesson or a temporary response; it should teach him a historical lesson.” Meanwhile, Iranian drones struck Kuwait’s Mina Al-Ahmadi oil refinery overnight, igniting fires at several operational units. Mina Al-Ahmadi is Kuwait’s largest oil refinery. Iran’s attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure continued through Friday.
CENTCOM commander Admiral Brad Cooper released a video message Saturday saying US forces have struck 8,000 military targets, including 130 Iranian vessels. “Their Navy is not sailing, their tactical fighters are not flying and they have lost the ability to launch missiles and drones at the high rates seen at the beginning of the conflict,” Cooper said.
The Sanctions Reversal
In a significant policy reversal, the US temporarily lifted sanctions on 140 million barrels of Iranian oil currently loaded on ships. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the decision is expected to quickly add about 140 million barrels to the global oil market. The waiver runs until April 19. The administration has also lifted some sanctions on Russian crude. Brent crude settled at $112.19 a barrel Friday, its highest level of the war. Goldman Sachs suggested higher prices could last through 2027.
The IEA is urging people to work from home and avoid air travel as part of emergency measures designed to ease a potential global fuel crisis. The EU called for de-escalation and a moratorium on strikes targeting energy and water infrastructure.
Inside the Administration
People close to Trump describe a president pulled in two directions. He is frustrated that allies have refused to help with the Strait and annoyed by rising oil prices at home. But he is also energized by the military campaign’s results, reportedly telling a confidant opposed to the war “we’re hot, we’re winning.” White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said the mission was always expected to take four to six weeks and that week three is on schedule. Bahrain and Romania on Friday said they would contribute to efforts to secure navigation in the strait, the first regional country and first Eastern European nation respectively to make such a commitment.
Why This Matters to You
The central tension of Friday’s announcement is this: Trump is signaling the war is nearly over, while the economic crisis that defines the war’s impact on everyday life, the Strait of Hormuz closure, remains unresolved. Brent crude hit $112 on the same day Trump suggested winding down. The IEA is asking people to change their daily behavior to conserve fuel. Goldman Sachs says high prices could last into 2027.
If the US withdraws military pressure without the Strait reopening, the countries that depend on Gulf oil, which is most of the world, face an indeterminate period of supply disruption with no clear mechanism to end it. Iran has shown no willingness to reopen the waterway voluntarily. Allies have shown little willingness to enforce it militarily. It is worth thinking about: Can the Strait of Hormuz reopen without either US military force or a negotiated diplomatic settlement, neither of which currently appears imminent? If Goldman Sachs is right that high oil prices last through 2027, what does that mean for the Federal Reserve’s ability to cut rates and for household budgets across the country? And with Trump simultaneously lifting sanctions on Iranian oil to ease the crisis while bombing Iran’s military, is the administration pursuing coherent or contradictory policies?
-Elijah Iraheta, Editor in Chief, ASC News
