Oil crossed $100 a barrel for the first time since 2023 on Sunday night as the Iran war entered its tenth day with no end in sight. Stock futures fell sharply ahead of the Monday open, pointing to another difficult week on Wall Street. The moves come after the Dow posted its worst weekly decline in nearly a year and WTI crude recorded its biggest weekly gain in the history of the futures contract.
Oil Breaks $100
West Texas Intermediate crude jumped 13% Sunday night to above $103 a barrel. Brent crude added 10% to $102.31 a barrel. The surge was triggered by fresh production cuts from major Gulf producers. Iraq’s output has fallen by an estimated 70%. Kuwait announced cuts without specifying the volume. Saudi Aramco’s Ras Tanura refinery and crude export terminal, one of the largest in the world, has closed due to attacks. Qatar declared force majeure on its gas exports after Iranian drone strikes, and sources told Reuters it could take at least a month to return to normal production. Qatar supplies approximately 20% of global liquefied natural gas. (Al Jazeera, Reuters)
A nearly complete shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz means the region’s top oil producers including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq and Kuwait have had to suspend shipments of as much as 140 million barrels collectively.
Stock Futures Sink
Dow futures fell 830 points, or 1.8%, ahead of Monday’s open. S&P 500 futures lost 1.6% and Nasdaq 100 futures shed 1.7%. The Dow had already slid approximately 3% last week, its worst weekly performance since Trump’s initial tariff announcement roiled markets in April 2025. The S&P 500 shed 2% on the week and the Nasdaq ended 1.2% lower.
The US dollar strengthened against other major currencies as investors sought safe haven assets, with the dollar index erasing its losses for the year.
BlackRock CIO Rick Rieder warned clients Friday that markets are clearly jittery given the wide range of possible outcomes. “These events are creating some extreme movements in areas of the markets as market participants are clearly looking to reduce overweight positions or hedge embedded risk,” he wrote.
Analysts have noted that a scenario where oil trades around $80 per barrel and the conflict is relatively short-lived would result in limited impacts on the global economy. A scenario where oil rises above $100 would be qualitatively different, with much bigger shocks to the global economy.
Oil has now crossed that threshold. Bloomberg reported that a growing chorus of energy executives and traders is warning that every day the war continues brings the world closer to a tipping point, with several predicting $100 crude as imminent even before Sunday night’s move confirmed it. (Bloomberg)
Iran’s New Supreme Leader and a Possible Opening
Iran confirmed Sunday it had selected Mojtaba Khamenei, son of the late supreme leader, as his successor. Trump told the New York Times on Sunday he is open to lifting sanctions on Iran if the new leadership can serve as a pragmatic partner. That comment offered a brief window of potential de-escalation rhetoric, though fighting continued throughout the day. (Fortune, New York Times)
What to Watch This Week
There is no major economic data scheduled for Monday. Hewlett Packard Enterprise reports earnings after the bell. Later in the week, investors will watch Kohl’s, Oracle, Dollar General and Dick’s Sporting Goods for earnings. Inflation, employment and GDP data are also due throughout the week and will be closely watched given the rapidly changing economic picture.
Why This Matters to You
Oil at $100 a barrel is not just a market milestone. It is a direct line to gas prices, heating bills, grocery costs and airline tickets. Every sector of the economy that moves goods or people runs on energy, and that energy just got significantly more expensive overnight.
For everyday Americans already stretched by inflation and job market weakness, this week could bring further financial pressure depending on how markets react when trading opens Monday. It is worth thinking about: With Iraq’s output down 70% and Qatar’s gas exports under force majeure, how much longer can global energy markets sustain this disruption before the economic damage becomes irreversible? If Trump is genuinely open to lifting sanctions on Iran’s new leadership, could that be the off-ramp that ends this conflict? And with the Fed already facing a difficult balancing act between weak jobs and rising inflation, what happens to interest rates if oil stays above $100?
-Elijah Iraheta, Editor in Chief, ASC News
