Illinois Lieutenant Governor Juliana Stratton won the Democratic Senate primary Tuesday night, defeating Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi and Rep. Robin Kelly in a hard-fought three-way race to succeed retiring Sen. Dick Durbin. With 82% of precincts reporting, Stratton led with 39.6% to Krishnamoorthi’s 33.6%, a margin of approximately 50,000 votes out of more than 900,000 cast. Kelly finished third with 18.5%. She will face former Illinois Republican Party Chair Don Tracy in November and is a heavy favorite in a state no Republican has won statewide in 12 years. If elected, she would become the sixth Black woman to serve in the US Senate and the first time three Black women served simultaneously. (NBC News, NPR Illinois)
How Stratton Won
Stratton spent just $1.1 million on ads compared to Krishnamoorthi’s $27 million, but was carried by Gov. JB Pritzker’s Illinois Future PAC, which spent $14.9 million on her behalf. She defeated Krishnamoorthi by 20 points in the city of Chicago and the two were tied in the suburbs. Her message, including a viral ad featuring voters saying “f*** Trump” and a pledge to abolish ICE entirely, drew a sharp contrast with her rivals’ more moderate positioning. She outperformed Krishnamoorthi in the Metro East region, Sangamon County, Chicago and parts of Cook County, stripping away areas where he had expected to lead. (Chicago Sun-Times, NBC News)
Krishnamoorthi, whose numbers had remained stubbornly in the mid-to-high 30s despite months of non-stop advertising, took the stage to concede shortly after 9:30 p.m. “Obviously, this is not the result we sought,” he told supporters. “But unlike Donald Trump, I’m not going to question the outcome.” (NPR Illinois)
The Pritzker Factor
Not only did Pritzker secure a path to a likely third term as governor, running unopposed in his own primary, but his chosen Senate candidate prevailed. Her strength was clear across Chicagoland and also downstate, an almost certain reflection of Pritzker’s influence. He emerges from the primary as both a winner and a kingmaker. Pritzker is widely regarded as a potential 2028 presidential contender and his speech Tuesday night was unmistakably pointed in that direction. He called Trump “the carnival barker in chief” and Republicans in Congress “grifters of corruption and selfishness.” (CNN, NBC News)
The Super PAC Wars
The pro-cryptocurrency super PAC Fairshake, funded primarily by Trump megadonors Marc Andreessen and Ben Horowitz, spent more than $8.2 million in anti-Stratton advertising. It got very little for the investment. Stratton won. Sen. Elizabeth Warren, speaking at a Stratton rally last week, called the crypto money “dark money, hidden money, money that disguises who it is” and warned about what it means for democracy. AIPAC-aligned groups had a mixed night, winning in some House races and losing in others. (Chicago Sun-Times, CNN)
The House Primaries
The night featured five open House seats, all expected to remain Democratic in November. Former Rep. Melissa Bean won the 8th District primary, defeating tech entrepreneur Junaid Ahmed, who was backed by Sens. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren. In the 2nd District, former Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr., attempting a comeback weeks after the death of his father Rev. Jesse Jackson, lost to Cook County Commissioner Donna Miller, who was backed by AIPAC-aligned spending. In the 7th District, state Rep. La Shawn Ford won despite AIPAC-aligned opposition. In the 9th District, Evanston Mayor Daniel Biss defeated 26-year-old Palestinian-American Kat Abughazaleh, who had sought to become the first Generation Z woman in Congress. (AP, CNN, NBC News)
Why This Matters to You
Illinois’s primary is the first major test of where the Democratic Party stands heading into a midterm election year with the House majority on the line. The results suggest the party’s base, at least in Illinois, is moving toward more progressive positioning on immigration, healthcare and corporate money in elections, rather than toward the center. Stratton’s victory over a well-funded, well-known moderate incumbent with name recognition and a nine-month head start in advertising is a notable data point.
For the Senate, Stratton would join as one of the most progressive members of the caucus. Her public opposition to Chuck Schumer’s continued leadership and her support for abolishing ICE and Medicare for All will shape the internal debates Democrats are having about their identity heading into 2028. It is worth thinking about: Does Stratton’s win signal that Democratic primary voters are rewarding fighters over pragmatists, or is this result specific to Illinois’s political geography? With Pritzker now positioned as a kingmaker and presidential hopeful, how much does Illinois’s Senate race reflect his ambitions rather than the broader national mood? And with AIPAC and crypto super PACs both losing key races despite massive spending, is the era of outside money determining Democratic primary outcomes showing cracks?
-Elijah Iraheta, Editor in Chief, ASC News
